MCD stock verdict - Avoid
MCD
McDonald's Corporation
AVOIDConsumer Cyclical
$264.76
Fundamentals below bar
$264.76
Heavy$101.68Buy$135.57Fair$169.47Exit$203.36
FUNDAMENTAL44
TECHNICAL12
TRUST SCORE
100High
confidence in this read — data completeness, earnings quality & coverage
Downtrend · EMA20 270.06 · EMA50 276.91 · EMA200 294.62 · RSI 41.3 · MACD below signal
PROS
- Conservative balance sheet — debt-to-equity of -42.71
- Converts 26% of revenue into free cash flow
- High gross margin of 57% (3-yr avg)
CONS
- Trades above the model's exit level ($203.36) — overvalued on this framework
- Rich for its growth rate (PEG 2.7)
- Company has a low return on equity of -564.4% (TTM)
- Price is in a downtrend — below key moving averages
✳ Pros and cons are machine-generated from the latest fundamentals and technicals.
EARNINGS QUALITY · we check the accounting so you don't have to
✓Operating cash flow is 123% of net income — profit is backed by real cash
✓Low accruals — reported profit tracks the cash actually generated
✓Receivables growing in line with sales
Analysis as of 2026-07-27 · price live, fundamentals from latest filings
FAQ
Why is MCD rated Avoid?
MCD (McDonald's Corporation) is rated Avoid because the model combines fundamentals, price action, and earnings-quality checks. The current signal is Fundamentals below bar. Conservative balance sheet — debt-to-equity of -42.71 and Converts 26% of revenue into free cash flow
Is MCD overvalued right now?
MCD is trading at $264.76 versus an estimated fair value of $169.47. That puts the stock in avoid territory on this framework. Trades above the model's exit level ($203.36) — overvalued on this framework and Rich for its growth rate (PEG 2.7)
What should I watch before acting on MCD?
Watch the trust score of 100, the earnings-quality checks, and any red flags. Trades above the model's exit level ($203.36) — overvalued on this framework and Rich for its growth rate (PEG 2.7)