📡 Market Pulse
Daily pre-market brief · Data through US close · Source: FRED & Yahoo Finance · Refreshed every 6 hours · October 20, 2026
Market Conditions
Bearish 28/100
Risk-off environment — most indicators are negative
Trend
SPY $766.48 below 50MA but above 200MA
Short-term weakness, long-term trend still up
Breadth
4 of 11 sectors above 50MA (36%)
Most sectors are underperforming — rally is narrow
Distribution
N/A
Heavy selling into strength — distribution signal
Volatility
VIX 18.4
Moderate caution — elevated uncertainty
Credit
HYG vs LQD: -0.2% (20-day)
Mixed credit signals — risk appetite neutral
Internals
36% of sectors above their 50-day average
Few sectors holding up — index breadth is weak
Macro Regime
Reflation
Growth positive but inflation rising — watch rate sensitivity
Notable
⚡ XLE (Energy) leads the SPDR 11 · Strong · score 66
⚡ XLI (Industrials) is the weakest sector · Weak
Macro Economic Indicator
N/A
FRED data unavailable
Economic Regime
Reflation
growth +0.0 · prices +0.0
· too close to call
+0.0
Growth
+0.0
Prices
SPY Sentiment
63.9/100
NEUTRAL
SPY $766.48 · RSI 52.2 · VIX 18.4
· -1.6% from 52W high
US Sector Rotation — SPDR 11
| Rank | Sector | 1W% | 1M% | Mom | Signal | Quadrant | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 💪 | XLE Energy | +2.7 | +6.1 | +5.5 | Strong | Leading | 66 |
| 2 | 💪 | XLP Staples | +3.3 | +6.0 | +3.9 | Improving | Leading | 62 |
| 3 | 💪 | XLV Healthcare | +2.1 | +4.7 | +3.3 | Improving | Leading | 60 |
| 4 | ➡️ | XLB Materials | +3.1 | +2.4 | +1.9 | Improving | Leading | 56 |
| 5 | ➡️ | XLY Discretionary | +2.0 | +3.3 | +1.4 | Improving | Leading | 54 |
| 6 | ➡️ | XLC Communications | -1.2 | -0.3 | -0.8 | Weak | Lagging | 48 |
| 7 | ➡️ | XLF Financials | 0.0 | -1.1 | -1.0 | Weak | Lagging | 47 |
| 8 | ➡️ | XLU Utilities | -0.6 | +1.4 | -1.3 | Weak | Weakening | 46 |
| 9 | ➡️ | XLRE Real Estate | -0.6 | -1.2 | -2.2 | Weak | Lagging | 43 |
| 10 | ⚠️ | XLK Technology | -5.3 | -1.8 | -2.6 | Weak | Lagging | 42 |
| 11 | ➡️ | XLI Industrials | -1.5 | -1.5 | -2.9 | Weak | Lagging | 41 |
Action Items — based on Reflation regime
✅ Historically favored in Reflation
XLE · Energy
XLB · Materials
XLF · Financials
⚠️ Use caution in Reflation
XLU · Utilities
XLP · Staples
XLRE · Real Estate
MEI = composite of GDP, industrial production, unemployment, and retail sales (FRED). Economic regime = growth momentum vs inflation momentum relative to Fed targets. Sector signals = momentum scores from 39-ETF rotation model. Historical regime-sector correlations are not forecasts. Not investment advice.